There’s an old saying that economists have predicted nine of the last five recessions. Downturns are inevitable, but when it comes to the US economy, the pessimists are usually wrong.
These days it’s particularly easy to get caught up in all the negativity. A pandemic has killed many Americans, millions are out of work, and we’re in the middle of an ugly and contentious presidential campaign. It’s no surprise that the news is filled with fearful stories.
But look past all the negativity and the case for America remains strong. Even with all the bad news, the stock market is doing great. Why? Because the markets are forward looking. All of us should look to the future too.
Vaccines and treatments for the coronavirus are coming. Our biomedical industries have a long track record of amazing medical breakthroughs, and it’s just a matter of time. The United States is a land of vast wealth, with a well educated and highly mobile workforce. Our capital markets are robust and our legal system gives investors confidence that their investments are as safe here as anywhere in the world.
American technology companies continue to develop amazing products and services. Many of the products we now use every day would have seemed like science fiction 20 or 30 years ago. That progress continues.
Crucially for the economy, American consumers, and much of the rest of the world, still want to buy what American companies are selling.
From my perspective as a commercial real estate investor, our industry looks healthier than you would think, based on gloomy media reporting. In particular, the niche areas where Alliance focuses on. While many businesses are dealing with operational changes, in many cases the changes being made will make companies healthier and more resilient in the long run. And, as we all know, the pandemic will pass.
At Alliance, our deal pipeline is still flowing very well. There are plenty of motivated sellers and buyers out there, and that gives us the opportunity to make great deals.
While it may be true that America is lagging some countries on certain statistics, we have to remember to ask ourselves how much that really impacts our long term outlook. Without minimizing the pain and loss involved in our current situation, it’s important to remind ourselves to also look to the future.
Once the crisis passes, we’ll be left with America’s fundamentals. Underneath all the fear and worry, America’s fundamentals are still strong, and our future is still bright.